SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Mitengo yePolyvinyl chloride (PVC) inogona kugadzikana kusvika pamadhora mazana masere ($800/tonne) nekufamba kwenguva kana mafuta asina kucheneswa akaramba ari pakati pemadhora makumi manomwe kusvika makumi mapfumbamwe ($70-90/barrel), sezvo kushamisika kwekugadzirwa kwezvinhu kunokonzerwa nehondo yeIran kuri kwekubatsira vagadziri vane mari yeUS Gulf Coast yakaita seOrbia, CEO weMexico chemicals major akadaro neChitatu.
Sameer Bharadwaj akati kana mafuta asina kucheneswa akaramba achidarika $60 pabhareri, mitengo yePVC "haigoneke" kudzokera pamutengo wakaderera we $600 patani, kunyangwe akabvuma kuti kuwanikwa kwemafuta aya kuri kuramba kuripo pasi rose.
Pakupera kwaKubvumbi, mitengo yePVC yakamira pamadhora mazana manomwe nemakumi mashanu ($750) patani. Pakutanga kweChitatu, mitengo yeBrent yaitengeswa pamadhora zana nemakumi manomwe nemanomwe nemakumi mashanu nemashanu ($117.55) pabhareri.
"Zvatiri kuona iye zvino kushamisika kwezviwanikwa, uye kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwezviwanikwa ndiko kwakaita kuti mitengo yePVC ikwire. PVC inowanikwa nehuwandu hwakakwana - dambudziko harisi kushomeka, asi mutengo. Mitengo yakakwira nekuti huwandu hwezviwanikwa hwakakwira. Kwavanogara kunoenderana nekuti oiri ichasvika kupi mumwedzi iri kuuya," akadaro Bharadwaj.
"Kana gorosi risina kubikwa rikaramba riri pamusoro pemadhora makumi matanhatu ($600-700/tani), mitengo yakaderera yemadhora mazana matanhatu ($600-700/tani) haingadzokeri. Kana zvikagadzikana pamadhora makumi manomwe kusvika makumi mapfumbamwe ($70-90/tani), ungatarisira kuti PVC igare zvakanaka pamadhora mazana masere ($800/tani) kwenguva yakareba, izvo zviri mhedzisiro yakanaka kuindasitiri."
"Zvakakoshawo kuyeuka kuti musiyano wekushanda pakati pepasi nepamusoro pePVC cycle hauna kuenzana: nzvimbo yekuchengetera zvinhu inenge 76% uye yepamusoro inenge 82-83%," akawedzera, achitaura nevatori venhau nevaongorori vemakemikari mushure mekunge Orbia yaburitsa mhedzisiro yayo yemari mukota yekutanga yevhiki rino.
Mugadzirikuwedzera kwekutengesa nemari inowanikwapanguva yeKota yekutanga, gore negore, uye yakaderedza kurasikirwa kwayo uku ichisimbisa gwara remari yayo yegore ra2026 - ona tafura yepasi kuti uwane zvizere zvemari.
Kukatyamadzwa kwehondo chinhu chakanaka
Kunyangwe PVC ikaramba yakawandisa -uyeinoramba ichienderera mberiimwe yezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvakanyanya kuChinazvigadzirwa zve petrochemicals nekuda kwekushaikwa kwakaderera munyika - hondo muMiddle East yakachinja zvachose mamiriro ezvinhu eOrbia, iyo PVC ndiyo chigadzirwa chikuru mu portfolio yayo.
Kambani iyi yakashuma kuvandudzika kukuru muchikamu chayo che polymer solutions, zvichikonzerwa nekukanganiswa kukuru kwevagadziri vePVC vekuAsia vanokwikwidzana, kunyanya vagadziri nevagadziri vekuChina vane ethylene muJapan, South Korea, neTaiwan, avo vane naphtha yakakosha yekudya yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya nekusawirirana uku.
"Kukanganiswa kuripo kwemafuta, uye nekudaro kuwanikwa kwemafuta emhando yeNaphtha kubva kuMiddle East, kwakanyanya, maererano nevagadziri vePVC vekuAsia," akadaro Bharadwaj.
"Izvi zvakaita kuti vashande nemitengo yakaderera. Net-net, chatinoona ndechekuti kuderera kwehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kwawedzera zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yePVC, uye tichabatsirwa zvikuru nazvo muchikamu chechipiri chegore."
Mukuru wekambani iyi akataura kuti mukana weOrbia wekushandisa mari yakawanda - nekugadzirwa kwayo kwakavakirwa zvakanyanya pamafuta emhando ye ethane anobva kuUS Gulf Coast - hauna kuchinja zvakanyanya munguva yehondo, zvichiita kuti kambani iyi idzivirire kutadza kwemagetsi kwaikonzera makwikwi ekuAsia.
Kunyangwe hondo ikapera munguva pfupi iri kutevera, akadaro, kukuvara kwezvekutengeswa kwezvinhu kunotora nguva kuti zviite sezvinowanzoitika.
"Nyanzvi zhinji dzinoti kunyangwe hondo ikapera munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kukanganiswa kwezvekutakura zvinhu kwakakonzerwa kwaizotora mwedzi mitatu kusvika mitanhatu kuti kudzikame," akawedzera.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-30-2026