Dunhu richatakura mutoro wekutengeswa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika muna 2024 iSoutheast Asia, saka Southeast Asia ndiyo inonyanya kukosheswa mumaonero a2025. Mukutarisa kwekutengeserana kunze kwenyika mudunhu muna 2024, nzvimbo yekutanga yeLLDPE, LDPE, primary form PP, uye block copolymerization ndiyo Southeast Asia, nemamwe mazwi, nzvimbo huru yekutengeswa kwezvinhu zve4 kubva ku6 zve polyolefin products ndiyo Southeast Asia.
Zvakanakira: Southeast Asia inzvimbo ine miganhu neChina uye ine nhoroondo refu yekushandira pamwe. Muna 1976, ASEAN yakasaina Chibvumirano cheUshamwari neKushandira pamwe muSoutheast Asia kuti ikurudzire rugare rusingaperi, hushamwari nekushandira pamwe pakati penyika dziri munharaunda iyi, uye China yakabatana zviri pamutemo neChibvumirano ichi musi wa8 Gumiguru, 2003. Hukama hwakanaka hwakaisa hwaro hwekutengeserana. Chechipiri, muSoutheast Asia mumakore achangopfuura, kunze kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, mafekitori mashoma makuru epolyolefin akaiswa mukugadzirwa, uye inotarisirwa kuramba yakaderera mumakore mashoma anotevera, izvo zvinoderedza kunetseka kwekuwanikwa kwezvinhu, uye mukaha wekudiwa kwayo uchavapo kwenguva yakareba. Southeast Asia inzvimbo inofarirwawo yekuwedzera kwekutengesa zvigadzirwa kubva kuvatengesi vekuChina, nekugadzikana kwakanaka.
Zvakashata: Kunyange zvazvo Southeast Asia iri kuwirirana neChina yose, kusawirirana kudiki kwenzvimbo kuchiri kusingadzivisike. Kwemakore mazhinji, China yave yakazvipira kusimudzira Mutemo weMaitiro muSouth China Sea kuti ive nechokwadi chekuti zvido zvevanhu vese zvinoonekwa. Chechipiri, kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera pasi rose, senge Indonesia pakutanga kwaZvita yakatanga kuferefeta kurwisa dumping kurwisa polypropylene homopolymers kubva kuSaudi Arabia, Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand neVietnam. Danho iri, rakagadzirirwa kuchengetedza makambani emuno uye nekukumbira kwemakambani emuno, harina kunangana neChina chete, asi nenyika huru dzinobva kuzvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Kunyangwe risingakwanise kudzivirira zvachose kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, hazvidzivisike kuti mitengo yekutengeswa kwezvinhu ichaderedzwa kusvika pamwero wakati, uye China inofanirawo kungwarira nezvekuferefeta kurwisa dumping muIndonesia muna 2025.
Tataura pamusoro apa kuti mhando ina dzepamusoro dzezvigadzirwa zvepolyolefin dzinogara kuSoutheast Asia, nepo zvimwe zvigadzirwa zviviri zviri panzvimbo yekutanga iAfrica, nzvimbo ine huwandu hukuru hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kweHDPE, uye Northeast Asia, nzvimbo ine huwandu hukuru hwezvimwe zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwePP. Zvisinei, kana tichienzanisa neNortheast Asia, Africa iri panzvimbo yechipiri yeLDPE uye block copolymerization. Saka vanyori vakaisa Africa panzvimbo yechipiri pane runyorwa rwenzvimbo dzinokosheswa.
Zvakanakira: Zvinozivikanwa kuti China ine kubatana kwakadzama neAfrica, uye yagara ichibatsira Africa. China neAfrica dzinoti kubatana kwakasimba kwehukama, uko kune hwaro hwakadzama hweushamwari. Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera pasi rose, panguva ino, zvingangoita kuti Africa isatevedzere nhanho dzekumadokero kutora matanho akadaro kurwisa China, uye maererano nemamiriro ayo ekupa nekudiwa, haitsigire kuitwa kwematanho akadaro parizvino. Kugona kwekugadzira polypropylene muAfrica parizvino kuri pamatani mamiriyoni 2.21 pagore, kusanganisira fekitari ye 830,000 matani pagore muNigeria yakatanga kushanda gore rino. Kugona kwekugadzira polyethylene kwematani mamiriyoni 1.8 pagore, ayo HDPE inosvika matani 838,000 pagore. Zvichienzaniswa nemamiriro ezvinhu muIndonesia, kugona kwekugadzira PP muAfrica kwakapetwa kaviri nehafu kupfuura Indonesia, asi huwandu hwevanhu vayo hwakapetwa kashanu kupfuura Indonesia, asi zvakakosha kutaura kuti huwandu hweurombo muAfrica hwakakwira zvichienzaniswa neIndonesia, uye simba rekushandisa rinoderedzwa. Asi nekufamba kwenguva, ichiri musika une mukana mukuru.
Zvakashata: Indasitiri yemabhangi emuAfrica haina kugadzirwa, uye nzira dzekugadzirisa zvinhu dzakaganhurirwa. Nguva dzose pane mativi maviri emari yega yega, uye zvakanakira Africa zvakare kuipa kwayo, nekuti mukana weramangwana uchiri kuda nguva yekuratidza, asi kudiwa kwazvino kuchiri kuganhurirwa, sezvataurwa pamusoro apa kuchiri nesimba rekushandisa rakakwana. Uye Africa inotenga zvakawanda kubva kuMiddle East, zvichisiya nyika yedu nemikana mishoma. Chechipiri, nekuda kwekukwanisa kushoma kweAfrica kubata nemarara epurasitiki, mumakore apfuura, nyika dzakawanda dzakaburitsa zvirambidzo nekurambidza mapurasitiki. Parizvino, nyika dzinosvika makumi matatu neina dzakaburitsa kurambidzwa kwemabhegi epurasitiki anoshandiswa kamwe chete.
KuSouth America, China inonyanya kutumira polypropylene kunze kwenyika, kubva muna Ndira kusvika Gumiguru gore rino, South America iri panzvimbo yechipiri yekutumira zvinhu zvePP, yechitatu yekutumira zvinhu zvePP kunze kwenyika, uye yechitatu yekutumira zvinhu zve block copolymerization kunze kwenyika. Mukutumira zvinhu zve polypropylene kunze kwenyika, zviri pakati pezvinhu zvitatu zvepamusoro. Zvinoonekwa kuti South America ine chinzvimbo mukutumira zvinhu zve polypropylene kunze kwenyika muChina.
Zvakanakira: Nyika dzekuSouth America neChina hadzina kupesana kwakakura kwasara kubva munhoroondo, China neBrazil mukurima uye kushandira pamwe kwesimba rekuchengetedza nharaunda kuri kuwedzera kuva pedyo, mubatsiri mukuru weSouth America United States kubva Trump paakatanga kutonga kuisa mitero pazvinhu zvepasi rose zvakakonzerawo kusawirirana mukutengeserana kweSouth America nekutengeserana kwayo. Kutanga kwenyika dzekuSouth America kushandira pamwe nenyika yedu kuri kuwedzerawo zuva nezuva. Chechipiri, avhareji yemutengo wemusika muSouth America yakakwira kupfuura avhareji yemutengo wemusika munyika yedu kwenguva yakareba, uye kune mikana mikuru ye regional arbitrage Windows ine purofiti yakakura.
Zvakashata: Kufanana neSoutheast Asia, South America inewo dziviriro yekutengeserana, uye gore rino Brazil yakatungamira mukuisa mutero wepolyolefin inopinzwa kubva pa12.6% kusvika 20%. Chinangwa cheBrazil chakafanana necheIndonesia, kuchengetedza indasitiri yayo. Chechipiri, China neBrazil, kumabvazuva nekumadokero uye kuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba kwengarava mbiri idzi dzakamira, rwendo rurefu, rwendo rurefu. Zvinowanzotora mazuva 25-30 kufamba kubva kumahombekombe ekumadokero eSouth America kuenda kuChina, uye mazuva 30-35 kufamba kubva kumahombekombe ekumabvazuva eSouth America kuenda kuChina. Nokudaro, hwindo rekutumira kunze kwenyika rinokanganiswa zvikuru nekutakura zvinhu mugungwa. Makwikwi aya akasimba zvakaenzana, achitungamirwa neUnited States neCanada, achiteverwa neMiddle East neSouth Korea.
Kunyange hazvo vanyori vachinyora kwete chete simba asiwo kusasimba kwenzvimbo huru dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, vachiri kunyora senzvimbo dzepamusoro dzetariro. Chimwe chikonzero chakakosha chakavakirwa padata rekare rekutumira kunze kwenyika kubva mugore rapfuura uye kunyange mumakore achangopfuura. Ruzivo rwekutanga, kusvika pamwero wakati, runomiririra kuitika kwechokwadi, uye chaizvoizvo inzira refu yekuti shanduko dzakakosha dziitike. Kana mamiriro acho ezvinhu achizogadziriswa mukati menguva pfupi, mupepeti anotenda kuti zvinotevera zvinofanirwa kuzadzikiswa:
1) Kusawirirana kwechisimba munharaunda iyi, kusanganisira asi kwete kungogumira pakubuda kwehondo inopisa, kuwedzera kwekuzviparadzanisa kwekutengeserana nedzimwe nzira dzakasimba.
2) Kuchinja kukuru mukuwanikwa kwezvinhu munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana kuchadzosera shure kuwanikwa kwezvinhu uye kudiwa kwazvo, asi izvi hazvigone kupedzwa munguva pfupi. Kazhinji zvinotora nguva yakareba kubva pakugadzirwa kwekutanga kusvika pakutengeswa kwakazara kwechigadzirwa mumusika.
3) Dziviriro yekutengeserana uye zvipingamupinyi zvemitero zvinongonangana neChina chete. Kusiyana nematanho ari muIndonesia neBrazil, kana mitengo yacho yakanangana zvakanyanya nezvinhu zveChina chete, kwete pazvinhu zvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, sezvakaita Indonesia neBrazil gore rino, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika neChina zvichakanganiswa zvakanyanya, uye zvinhu zvichatamiswa pakati penzvimbo.
Mamiriro aya ndiwo matambudziko makuru ekutengeserana kwepasi rose nhasi. Kunyangwe mamiriro ari pamusoro apa asati azadzikiswa zvizere parizvino, kushandira pamwe kwepasi rose kuchiri kwakabatana uye kunofanirwa kushandiswa munzira dzakasiyana. Asi dziviriro yekutengeserana uye kusawirirana kwematunhu zvave kuwanda mumakore achangopfuura. Kugadziriswa uye kufambira mberi munzvimbo dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kunofanirwawo kutariswa zvakanyanya kuti pave nebudiriro nemikana mune dzimwe nzvimbo.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-20-2024