Dunhu richatakura mutoro wekutengesa kunze kwenyika muna 2024 iSoutheast Asia, saka Southeast Asia inoiswa pamberi mu2025 maonero. Muchikamu chedunhu rekutumira kunze kwenyika muna 2024, nzvimbo yekutanga yeLLDPE, LDPE, yekutanga fomu PP, uye block copolymerization iSoutheast Asia, nemamwe mazwi, iyo yekutanga kuenda kunze kwenyika yezvikamu zvina zve6 makuru ezvigadzirwa zvepololefin iSoutheast Asia.
Zvakanakira: Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia ikamu remvura neChina uye rine nhoroondo refu yekushandira pamwe. Muna 1976, ASEAN yakasaina Chibvumirano cheAmity and Cooperation muSoutheast Asia kusimudzira rugare rwechigarire, ushamwari nekushandira pamwe pakati penyika dziri mudunhu, uye China yakabatana zviri pamutemo Chibvumirano musi wa8 Gumiguru 2003. Hukama hwakanaka hwakaisa hwaro hwekutengeserana. Chechipiri, muSoutheast Asia mumakore achangopfuura, kunze kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, mashoma mahombe makuru e polyolefin akaiswa mukugadzirwa, uye anotarisirwa kuramba akaderera mumakore mashoma anotevera, izvo zvinoderedza kushushikana kwekupa, uye kudiwa kwayo. gap richavapo kwenguva yakareba. Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia zvakare inzvimbo inosarudzirwa yekuwedzera kwekutengesa kwechigadzirwa kune vatengesi veChinese, nekugadzikana kwakanyanya.
Zvakaipa: Kunyange zvazvo Southeast Asia iri kuwirirana neChina yose, kukanganiswa kwematunhu kudiki kuchiri kusingadzivisiki. Kwemakore akawanda, China yakazvipira kusimudzira Code of Conduct muSouth China Sea kuti ive nechokwadi chezvido zvemapato ese. Chechipiri, kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera pasirese, senge Indonesia mukutanga kwaZvita yakatanga kuferefetwa kwepolypropylene homopolymers kubva kuSaudi Arabia, Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand neVietnam. Iyi danho, rakagadzirirwa kuchengetedza makambani epamba uye nekukumbirwa nemakambani epamba, harinangi China chete, asi nyika huru dzinobva kunze kwenyika. Kunyangwe isingakwanise kudzivirira zvachose kupinza kunze kwenyika, hazvidzivirike kuti mitengo yekunze ichadzikiswa kusvika padanho rakati, uye China inofanirawo kungwarira nezve ongororo yekurwisa kurasira muIndonesia muna 2025.
Tataura pamusoro apa kuti mana pazvikamu zvitanhatu zvepamusoro zvezvigadzirwa zve polyolefin zvinogarwa neSoutheast Asia, nepo zvigadzirwa zviviri zvasara zviri panzvimbo yekutanga iAfrica, nzvimbo ine huwandu hukuru hweHDPE inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye Northeast Asia, iyo inoenda kune yakakura. nhamba yemamwe mafomu ePP kunze kwenyika. Nekudaro, zvichienzaniswa neNortheast Asia, Africa inotora nzvimbo yechipiri yeLDPE uye block copolymerization. Vapepeti saka vakaisa Africa yechipiri pane rondedzero yenzvimbo dzinokosha.
Zvakanakira: Zvinonyatsozivikanwa kuti China ine mubatanidzwa wakadzama wekudyidzana neAfrica, uye yakaramba ichiuya kuzobatsira Africa. China neAfrica vanozvidaidza kuti mubatanidzwa wakazara wekudyidzana, une hwaro hwakadzama hwehushamwari. Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera pasi rose, panguva ino, zvine mukana wekuti Africa haizoteedzere nhanho yeMadokero kutora matanho akadaro kuChina, uye maererano neayo ekupa uye kudiwa mamiriro, inoita. kusatsigira kuitwa kwezviyero zvakadaro panguva ino. Africa yekugadzirwa kwepolypropylene pari zvino inomira pamatani 2.21 miriyoni pagore, kusanganisira 830,000 matani pagore chirimwa muNigeria chakauya gore rino. Polyethylene kugadzirwa kwe 1.8 miriyoni matani / gore, iyo HDPE yakazara 838,000 matani / gore. Kuenzaniswa nemamiriro ezvinhu muIndonesia, Africa yekugadzira PP inokwana 2.36 chete yeIndonesia, asi huwandu hwayo hunenge ka5 kupfuura iyo yeIndonesia, asi zvakakosha kutaura kuti hurombo hweAfrica hwakanyanya kuenzaniswa neIndonesia, uye simba rekushandisa riripo. zvakaderedzwa. Asi nekufamba kwenguva, ichiri musika une mukana mukuru.
Zvakaipa: Indasitiri yebhangi yeAfrica haina kugadzirwa, uye nzira dzekugadzirisa dzakaganhurirwa. Kune nguva dzose mativi maviri kumari imwe neimwe, uye zvakanakira Africa zvakare zvipingamupinyi zvayo, nekuti ramangwana rinogona kuramba richiri kuda nguva yekuratidza, asi kudiwa kwazvino kuchiri kushoma, sezvataurwa pamusoro apa kuchine simba rekushandisa rakakwana. Uye Africa inotenga zvakawanda kubva kuMiddle East, ichisiya nyika yedu nemikana mishoma. Chechipiri, nekuda kwehushoma hwekugona kweAfrica kubata nemarara epurasitiki, nekufamba kwemakore, nyika zhinji dzakapa zvirambidzo zvepurasitiki uye kurambidzwa. Parizvino, nyika dzinosvika makumi matatu neina dzakapa kurambidzwa kwekushandisa kamwe chete mabhegi epurasitiki.
KuSouth America, China inonyanya kuendesa kunze polypropylene, mumaitiro ekunze kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru gore rino, South America iri munzvimbo yechipiri yepakutanga PP kutengesa kunze kwenyika, nzvimbo yechitatu yemamwe marudzi ePP kunze kwenyika, uye yechitatu nzvimbo ye block copolymerization. kunze kwenyika. Mu polypropylene zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zviri pakati pezvitatu zvepamusoro. Zvinogona kuoneka kuti South America inotora chinzvimbo muChina polypropylene kunze kwenyika.
Mabhenefiti: Nyika dzeSouth America neChina dzinenge dzisina kupokana kwakadzama kwasara kubva munhoroondo, China neBrazil mune zvekurima uye girinhi simba rekudyidzana kuri kuwedzera kuswedera, mudiwa mukuru weSouth America United States kubva Trump paakatanga kutonga kuti aise mutero pazvinhu zvepasi rose zvakakonzerawo. kumwe kukanganisa mukutengeserana kweSouth America nekutengeserana kwayo. Danho renyika dzeSouth America rekushandira pamwe nenyika yedu riri kuwedzerawo zuva nezuva. Kechipiri, avhareji mutengo wemusika muSouth America wakakwira kupfuura avhareji mutengo wemusika munyika yedu kwenguva yakareba, uye kune mikana mikuru yedunhu arbitrage Windows ine purofiti yakakura.
Zvakaipa: Kufanana neSoutheast Asia, South America zvakare ine kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana, uye gore rino Brazil yakatungamira mukuita mitero yepololefin inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva pa12,6% kusvika pa20%. Chinangwa cheBrazil chakafanana neIndonesia, kuchengetedza indasitiri yayo. Chechipiri, China neBrazil, kumabvazuva uye kumadokero uye kuchamhembe uye kumaodzanyemba hemispheres maviri akazununguka, kureba, ngarava refu. Zvinowanzotora mazuva makumi maviri nemashanu kusvika makumi matatu kubva kumahombekombe ekumadokero kweSouth America kuenda kuChina, uye mazuva makumi matatu kusvika makumi matatu nemashanu kubva kumahombekombe ekumabvazuva kweSouth America kuenda kuChina. Naizvozvo, hwindo rekunze rinokanganiswa zvakanyanya nekutakura zvinhu mugungwa. Makwikwi aya akasimba zvakaenzana, anotungamirwa neUnited States neCanada, achiteverwa neMiddle East neSouth Korea.
Kunyangwe vapepeti vachinyora kwete masimba chete asiwo kusasimba kwenzvimbo huru dzekutengesa kunze, vanodzinyora senzvimbo dzepamusoro dzetariro. Chimwe chikonzero chakakosha chakavakirwa pane zvakaitika kare kutumira data kubva gore rapfuura uye kunyangwe makore achangopfuura. Iyo data yakakosha, kusvika pamwero wakati, inomiririra kuitika kwechokwadi, uye ichokwadi nzira yakareba yekuti shanduko dzakakosha dziitike. Kana mamiriro acho achizogadziriswa mukati menguva pfupi, mupepeti anotenda kuti zvinotevera zvinofanirwa kuzadzikiswa:
1) Kurwisana kwechisimba munharaunda, kusanganisira asi kwete kugumira pakuputika kwehondo inopisa, kuwedzera kwekutengeserana kwekutengeserana uye mamwe matanho akasimba.
2) Shanduko dzakakura mukupihwa kwedunhu dzichadzosera kugovera uye kudiwa, asi izvi hazvigone kupedzwa munguva pfupi. Zvinowanzotora nguva yakareba kubva pakugadzirwa kwekutanga kusvika kuzere kutenderera kwechigadzirwa mumusika.
3) Kudzivirirwa kwekutengeserana uye zvipingamupinyi zvemitero zvinongonanga kuChina. Kusiyana nematanho ari muIndonesia neBrazil, kana mitero yakanangidzirwa zvakanyanya pazvinhu zveChinese chete, kwete pane zvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, sezvakaitwa neIndonesia neBrazil gore rino, ipapo kuendesa kunze kwenyika kweChinese kuchabatwa nedambudziko rakati, uye zvinhu zvichaendeswa pakati. matunhu.
Aya mamiriro ndiwo chaiwo njodzi dzakanyanyisa kune kutengeserana kwenyika nhasi. Kunyange zvazvo zviri pamusoro apa zvisati zvazadzikiswa zvizere pari zvino, kubatana kwepasi rose kuchiri kupindirana uye kunofanira kushandiswa munzira dzakasiyana. Asi kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana uye kusawirirana kwedunhu kwave kuchiwanzoitika mumakore achangopfuura. Kugadziriswa uye kufambira mberi munzvimbo dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kunofanirwawo kutariswa zvakanyanya kune zviri kuitika uye nemikana mune mamwe matunhu.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-20-2024